Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2616 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 2616 · ORD → RDU

departs 10:48 AM CT · arrives 2:01 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at RDU that day

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ RDU usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2616 · ORD → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?