Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2645 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

UA 2645 · EWR → AUS

departs 8:59 PM ET · arrives 11:58 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2645 · EWR → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?