Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2851SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tomorrow
UA 2851 · SFO → TPA
departs 2:37 PM PT · arrives 10:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
15%chance · ±2 pts−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREGood. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.