Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2854 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

UA 2854 · SFO → PHL

departs 11:20 PM PT · arrives 7:50 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at SFO that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2854 · SFO → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?