Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 285 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

UA 285 · ATL → SFO

departs 6:00 PM ET · arrives 8:10 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±4 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at ATL that day

↑ This flight has been late 47% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.12 in

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 285 · ATL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?