Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 285 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

UA 285 · ATL → SFO

departs 5:50 PM ET · arrives 7:57 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ This flight has been late 47% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Visibility down to 1 mi forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.67 in

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 285 · ATL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?