Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 404 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

UA 404 · IAH → EWR

departs 6:18 PM CT · arrives 11:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±6 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.6 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.60 in

EWR (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling7,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 404 · IAH → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?