Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 491 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

UA 491 · IAH → MSY

departs 7:30 AM CT · arrives 8:46 AM CT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.6 in of rain forecast at MSY that day

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ IAH is prone to delays

↓ Arrivals into MSY at that hour are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.21 in

MSY (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.63 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 491 · IAH → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?