UA 791 · EWR → MIA

took off 8:33 PM ET · expected to land 10:52 PM ET (scheduled 8:33 PM ET → 11:43 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MIA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

MIA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 791 · EWR → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?