UA 804 · HND → IAD

departs 3:51 PM JST · arrives 3:06 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

79% chance · ±0 pts −35 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HND

↑ HND is busy at that time

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Other factors

↓ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

HND (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

IAD (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 804 · HND → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?