Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 106
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 106 · DAL → SAT
departs 3:30 PM CT · arrives 4:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±7 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
3pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
DAL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.48 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.