Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1101
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 1101 · BWI → SFO
departs 5:40 PM ET · arrives 8:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 4%
Wed 10/7 5%
Thu 10/8 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
−11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −17 pts in 24h
−17 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 56% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.