Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1188
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 1188 · MCO → DCA
departs 3:10 PM ET · arrives 5:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Fri 10/2 33%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
3pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DCA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.