Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1504 LANDED 10:05 AM CT, ON TIME · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 1504 · DCA → MDW

took off 9:36 AM ET · landed 10:05 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 9am departures from DCA are often late

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.35 in

MDW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1504 · DCA → MDW

Odds over time