Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1839
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 1839 · DAL → DCA
departs 2:05 PM CT · arrives 6:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DCA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.32 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.