Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1844 LANDED 2:46 AM ET, ~30 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 1844 · MDW → TPA

took off 11:11 PM CT · landed 2:46 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 21h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↑ TPA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1844 · MDW → TPA

Odds over time