Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2154
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 2154 · SAT → TPA
departs 9:50 AM CT · arrives 1:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Other factors
↓
SAT usually runs smoothly
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.20 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.