Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2205
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 2205 · OAK → LAS
departs 12:30 PM PT · arrives 2:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Fri 10/2 33%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
OAK is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.