Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2314
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 2314 · LAS → PHX
departs 7:55 PM PT · arrives 9:10 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 30%
Thu 10/8 32%
Fri 10/9 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.