Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2314
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 2314 · LAS → PHX
departs 7:45 PM PT · arrives 9:00 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 30%
Thu 10/8 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.