Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2542
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 2542 · MCI → DCA
departs 8:35 AM CT · arrives 11:55 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Fri 10/2 8%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↑
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.