Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2869
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 2869 · MDW → MSP
departs 10:30 AM CT · arrives 12:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5 10%
Thu 10/8 4%
Fri 10/9 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
29%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +21 pts in 24h
+21 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at MSP that day
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.