Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2876
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 2876 · MSP → MDW
departs 10:20 AM CT · arrives 11:50 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↑
10am departures from MSP are often late
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 7,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.