Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2894
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 2894 · MIA → HOU
departs 6:50 PM ET · arrives 8:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at HOU that day
↑
6pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.