Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2981
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 2981 · MSY → BNA
departs 7:20 AM CT · arrives 8:55 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Thu 10/1 10%
Fri 10/2 7%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BNA that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.2 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.25 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.