Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3236
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 3236 · MCO → STL
departs 6:15 PM ET · arrives 8:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
−17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −17 pts in 24h
−17 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −17 pts in 24h
−17 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.23 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.