Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3316
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 3316 · MCO → STL
departs 12:00 PM ET · arrives 1:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.18 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.