WN 3404 · DEN → MIA

took off 12:57 PM MT · expected to land 6:16 PM ET (scheduled 10:56 AM MT → 4:48 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
99%
Over 2 hours late
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at DEN that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3404 · DEN → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?