Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3438
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 3438 · RIC → BWI
departs 6:30 AM ET · arrives 7:25 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
17%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.4d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
17%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at RIC that day
↑
This flight has been late 10% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.42 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.