Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3438
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 3438 · RIC → BWI
departs 6:25 AM ET · arrives 7:20 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 5%
Sat 10/3 7%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at RIC that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 1.03 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.