Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3438
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 3438 · RIC → BWI
departs 6:15 AM ET · arrives 7:10 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 7%
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 7%
Wed 10/7 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.3d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
RIC is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.