Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3457
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 3457 · RDU → STL
departs 6:15 PM ET · arrives 7:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±4 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at RDU that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.20 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.