Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3457
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 3457 · RDU → STL
departs 7:50 PM ET · arrives 8:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 21%
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at RDU that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from RDU are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
RDU usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.78 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.