Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3472
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 3472 · RSW → STL
departs 8:45 PM ET · arrives 10:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 28%
Wed 10/7 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
RSW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
RSW (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.35 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.