Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3478
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 3478 · BNA → DCA
departs 1:35 PM CT · arrives 4:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↑
1pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DCA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.