Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3480
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 3480 · SAN → BNA
departs 10:40 PM PT · arrives 4:45 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 50%
Mon 10/5 11%
Fri 10/9 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.2d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
SAN is busy at that time
↓
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are usually not late
↓
10pm departures from SAN are usually not late
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.