Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3649
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 3649 · SFO → MDW
departs 11:40 PM PT · arrives 5:55 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.2d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 46% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
11pm departures from SFO are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.