Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3649
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 3649 · SFO → MDW
departs 11:40 PM PT · arrives 5:55 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Sat 10/3 25%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 46% of the time recently
↑
11pm departures from SFO are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 1 mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.