Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3709
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 3709 · TPA → BWI
departs 6:35 PM ET · arrives 9:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 26%
Fri 10/9 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.21 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 8.57143 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.