Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3772
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 3772 · SMF → DAL
departs 2:40 PM PT · arrives 8:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Fri 10/2 44%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 32%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.