Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4045
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4045 · TPA → SAT
departs 5:20 PM ET · arrives 6:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 64%
Fri 10/2 34%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
TPA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.29 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.