Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4045
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4045 · TPA → SAT
departs 1:30 PM ET · arrives 3:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 33%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±12 pts
+16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 2.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day
↑
0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
1pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SAT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.45 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 2.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.