Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4045
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4045 · TPA → SAT
departs 1:05 PM ET · arrives 2:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 42%
Fri 10/2 35%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from TPA are often late
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.31 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.