Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4073 LANDED 7:06 AM CT, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 4073 · STL → HOU

took off 5:30 AM CT · landed 7:06 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ HOU is prone to delays

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at HOU that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from STL are usually not late

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HOU (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4073 · STL → HOU

Odds over time