WN 4112 · STL → PHX

took off 2:07 PM CT · landed 2:53 PM MT (scheduled 1:46 PM CT → 3:22 PM MT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PHX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from STL are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4112 · STL → PHX

Odds over time

How late did it get to PHX?