Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4191
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 4191 · SAN → STS
departs 8:05 PM PT · arrives 9:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 31%
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
5.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at STS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to STS?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STS
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
STS (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.