WN 4230 · HOU → ELP

departs 6:02 PM CT · arrives 7:15 PM MT

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ELP?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at HOU that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from HOU are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HOU (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

ELP (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4230 · HOU → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?