Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4241
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 4241 · MDW → ICT
departs 8:30 PM CT · arrives 10:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 15%
Fri 10/9 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at ICT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to ICT?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ICT
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ICT (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.