Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4241
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 4241 · MDW → ICT
departs 9:35 PM CT · arrives 11:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at ICT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ICT?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ICT
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ICT (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.