Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4263
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 4263 · MDW → PHL
departs 5:55 PM CT · arrives 9:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 50%
Mon 10/5 26%
Fri 10/9 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.